Growth plan for Rad Power Bikes, 6 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Rad already has proof: the Radster™ Trail carries 247 reviews at 4.6. This plan turns it into creator ads for the cargo, commuter and trail bikes, protects one number, a $28.32 target CAC, and kills losers early.
- Target CAC
- $28.32
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
Hold $28.32 CAC and let 247 Radster™ Trail reviews sell
The number is a target CAC of $28.32. It is a guard line, 0.6 times a $47.20 ceiling. Spend rises only while CAC stays under it. If CAC drifts above, spend stops growing before anything else changes, even when the Radster™ Trail reviews look great.
Protect
Target CAC: $28.32 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $59 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $47.20. Guard line = 0.6 × $47.20 = $28.32. Across the ranges: $2.63 to $3,238.65.
Three moves
- Launch many creative tests every week and kill losers early, one variable per test.
- Send added spend only to concepts whose CAC sits under $28.32.
- Report daily CAC so a drift shows up in a day, not at the end of the month.
- reviews on the Radster™ Trail Electric Off-Road Bike, rated 4.6
- 247
- Published
- years of Radness, in the brand's own words
- 20
- Published
- miles of range, up to, on the Radster™ Trail
- 65
- Published
02 Variety
Cargo, commuter, trail and pets: four stories, not one ad
Each ad concept has to carry one reason to buy: cargo for the family on the RadWagon™ 5, a commute on the Radster™ Road, off-road range on the Radster™ Trail, or a bundle that saves. One reason per ad, so every test teaches us something.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Long range per charge | Range: Up to 65 miles | 6 |
| Real cargo payload | Payload: 375 lb. (265 lb. max rider) | 4 |
| Fast, free shipping | Wait less, ride more. Enjoy fast, free shipping on all ebike orders. | 3 |
| Riders who trust Rad | Trusted By 680,000+ Riders | 2 |
| Local bike shop partners | 1,400+ Local Bike Shop Partners | 2 |
| Bundle savings | Load up. Roll out. Bundle up and save $74! | 2 |
| Fall tune-up offer | Save 20% on tune ups, just in time for Fall. Find a Rad Retail location. | 2 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 21 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, starting with a $1999.99 bike bought on faith
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A $1999.99 bike needs trust; cold audiences may not convert on creator ads alone | High | High | Me | By week two, CAC on tested concepts sits under $47.20, or the concept set is rebuilt. |
| Ads promise free shipping, but the site shows "Free shipping*" and I haven't read the terms | Med | High | Your team | Written shipping terms in hand before the first ad that mentions shipping goes live. |
| Accessory ads hit oversized shipping: one rack lists a $30 oversized shipping charge | Low | Med | Your team | Every accessory in an ad is checked for extra shipping charges before launch. |
| Creator videos make range or payload claims the brand never wrote | Med | High | Me | Every range and payload line in a brief matches the product page; no off-sheet claim goes live. |
| Tracking is incomplete, so CAC cannot be trusted at $28.32 | Med | High | Both | Event tracking specced and checked against real orders before spend passes $3,000. |
| Winners tire fast and CAC climbs above the $28.32 guard line | High | Med | Me | Any concept above $28.32 for a full week is paused; a replacement ships the same week. |
| Creators slip behind the ramp, so videos and new ads fall short | Med | Med | Both | 10 creators live by week six; if the count falls short, hold new ad volume until it catches up. |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
A $47.20 ceiling, and week one replaces its guesses
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $59 (range $5.00–$2,399.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $47.20 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $28.32 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $59 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $47.20. Guard line = 0.6 × $47.20 = $28.32. Across the ranges: $2.63 to $3,238.65.
Range across the assumptions: $3 to $3,239.
The $47.20 ceiling is $59 × 40% × (1 + 1), and the guard line is 0.6 of it: $28.32. Every input is a guess; Rad's real order value, margin and repeat orders replace them in week one.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
$24,000 of tests over six weeks before any bike scales
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $28 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $28 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $28 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $28 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $28 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $28 |
Six weeks of tests, Proposed. Weeks 1 and 2 run 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 run 12–20 ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Total $24,000 of tests, cumulative by week 6.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
Cargo, folding, trail and commuter bikes leave room for volume
More concepts means more winners. Assumption: 20 concepts give 2 winners and $18,000 added a month; 80 concepts give 8 winners and $72,000 added a month. Hit rate and spend per winner are my guesses, not Rad's data.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
$100,000 to allocate, weighted toward creative that proves itself
- New creative: ads and creator videos tested weekly
- $45,000
- 45%
- Scaling winners that hold under $28.32 CAC
- $30,000
- 30%
- Creator pay and product seeding
- $15,000
- 15%
- Landing pages and the claims sheet
- $10,000
- 10%
The $100,000 budget is Proposed; the split is mine to adjust once week one shows which bikes convert, and winners take more.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 30% × $100,000 = $30,000; 15% × $100,000 = $15,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first, because free shipping on all ebike orders travels well
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | From week one, with 12 new ads | Paid social is where creator video runs, and the bike range gives many visual angles. |
| TikTok | Once a creator video holds under $28.32 CAC on Meta | Creator cuts of cargo and commuter rides fit the format; I'd test it, not assume it. |
| YouTube | When a long review cut beats the short ones on CAC | Big-ticket bikes invite long watching, and 247 Radster™ Trail reviews give the script. |
| Search | Once Meta winners show which angles are worth buying | People who already want a cargo or commuter bike search the model names; the same hooks become queries. |
| Email and SMS | After first orders arrive and payback shows | Repeat orders sit in the $47.20 ceiling; the Cargo Bundle at $199.00 gives a reason to return. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback is the constraint, even on a $1999.99 Radster™ Trail
Payback is the real constraint. At a CAC of $15 the first order leaves $32.20. At $30 it needs repeat orders and leaves $17.20. At $50 it never pays back, minus $2.80, so we stop. At $65, minus $17.80. The rule does not bend for a $1999.99 bike.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $23.60, $47.20.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 | $23.60 | $47.20 | $32.20 | First order |
| $30 | $23.60 | $47.20 | $17.20 | After repeat orders |
| $50 | $23.60 | $47.20 | −$2.80 | Never: stop |
| $65 | $23.60 | $47.20 | −$17.80 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $15: $47.20 − $15 = $32.20 left; pays back: First order; CAC $30: $47.20 − $30 = $17.20 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $50: $47.20 − $50 = −$2.80 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $65: $47.20 − $65 = −$17.80 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: paid social and creators for the RadRunner™ line and beyond
Covers
- Paid social on Meta: concepts, launch, daily CAC, kill and scale calls
- Creator sourcing, briefs and the hook library for each bike line
- A claims sheet built only from the brand's own product wording
- Reporting: daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Building the event tracking: I spec it, your team works it through
- Product, pricing, shipping terms and stock decisions
- The store, support and the Rad Local Bike Shop Partner service
- Electric bike experience: I have none, so I lean on your team
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tests run on plan: $6,000 spent, 12 ads live each week, tracking matched to real orders. | Tracking can't match orders, or $6,000 is spent with no concept under $47.20. |
| Day 30 | At least one concept holds $28.32 CAC across a full week of spend. | No concept under $47.20 after $14,000 of tests. |
| Day 60 | $24,000 of tests spent, winners hold $28.32 CAC, and payback follows the repeat-order rule. | CAC sits at $50 or above: payback never arrives. |
| Day 90 | Added spend follows winners, CAC holds at $28.32 and cohort payback lands on first or repeat orders. | CAC is $65 or above, or cohort payback never arrives. |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| claims sheet | Range and payload lines on each bike page | One checked sheet creators can quote | 1st |
| creative | Radster™ Trail: 247 reviews at a 4.6 rating | Hooks and scripts built from those reviews | Week 1 |
| creators | Cargo, trail, commuter and pet products to brief on | A live roster: the first two start in week one | 2nd |
| landing pages | RadWagon 5 Family Bundle page at $357.00, struck from $407.00 | One page per ad angle: cargo, commuter, trail | 2nd |
| reporting | Order data on your side to match against | Daily CAC view and weekly learnings note | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 247 reviews on the Radster™ Trail Electric Off-Road Bike, rated 4.6 | https://www.radpowerbikes.com/products/radster-trail-electric-off-road-bike | Fact |
| 20 years of Radness, in the brand's own words | https://www.radpowerbikes.com/ | Fact |
| 65 miles of range, up to, on the Radster™ Trail | https://www.radpowerbikes.com/products/radster-trail-electric-off-road-bike | Fact |
| Product prices $5.00–$2,399.00 | product prices in the site product data (133 products), read 2026-10-06 | Fact |
| $59 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $28.32 target CAC | 0.6 of the $47.20 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $47.20 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 30% / 15% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I build the claims sheet from your product pages, brief the first two creators and launch 12 new ads with $3,000 of tests. Your team confirms shipping terms and tracking. Daily CAC reports start from the first order.
